Potential for Escalations of Regional Conflict in Central Africa
Potential for Escalations of Regional Conflict in Central Africa

Potential for Escalations of Regional Conflict in Central Africa

Jul 31, 2023 06:28 AM
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Potential Deaths & People at Risk:
Over 150 million Africans at risk across continent
Key Players:
Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed vs Tigray forces
Egypt President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi
Sudan - General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan
Sahel - Local militias, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab
Nigeria - President Muhammadu Buhari vs Atiku Abubakar
South Africa - President Cyril Ramaphosa vs opposition
Malawi - President Lazarus Chakwera vs opposition
Zimbabwe - President Emmerson Mnangagwa vs Nelson Chamisa
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Key Dates:
Feb-Mar 2024 - Nigeria general election
May 2024 - South Africa general election
May 2024 - Malawi general election
The civil war in Ethiopia between the federal government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Tigray forces will likely continue into its 4th year by winter 2023-2024. Despite repeated ceasefire agreements, clashes have persisted since 2020, displacing millions and putting populations at risk of famine. Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan remain deadlocked in dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project, creating tensions over water scarcity threats on the Nile River. President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt and General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of Sudan are key players to watch. In the Sahel region, terrorism remains a threat from groups like Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, and Islamic State affiliates, despite years of military campaigns. Vulnerable populations continue to face violence and instability. Several major African countries face high-stakes elections in 2023-2024 including Nigeria in Feb-Mar 2024 between President Muhammadu Buhari and challenger Atiku Abubakar; South Africa in May 2024 between President Cyril Ramaphosa and opposition parties; Malawi in May 2024 with a contested vote; and Zimbabwe in Jul-Aug 2024 between President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Nelson Chamisa. Previous polls have seen tensions, unrest, and contested results.
What will happen?
The global economic slowdown, inflationary pressures, and heavy debt burdens risk sparking unrest and protests across Africa. In total, the outlook points to continued conflicts, terrorism threats, election unrest risks, and economic pressures - putting over 150 million Africans at risk across the continent.


As violence in Sudan escalates, the situation for children is becoming extremely dangerous.
More than 4 million women and girls in Sudan are at risk of gender-based violence. The eruption of fighting in Sudan comes while the country is facing its worst-ever humanitarian crisis. Your donation to the Children's Emergency Fund helps support teams respond quickly to children living in crisis in Sudan and around the world.